An Olympic dilemma.

I love the Olympics. As a sports fan, there is an excitement that comes every other year watching top athletes compete in either summer or winter events for gold, silver, and bronze medals. There is a sense of wonder seeing these competitors from all around the world come together in peace at the opening ceremony to represent their countries.

But the Olympics are no stranger to criticism. In recent years, escalating costs for security and newly constructed infrastructure that often goes unused once the Games end have led many countries to reconsider serving as host. As the Olympics are typically financed by both public and private funding, host countries rack up tremendous public debt that must then be repaid, at least in part, by taxpayers. Indeed, the last Olympics that turned a profit (or even came close) was the 1984 Los Angeles Games, which relied on existing infrastructure to keep down costs.

The cost of recent Games becomes even more troubling when it becomes clear that the host country can make a better use of public resources. The 2016 Summer Olympics in Rio de Janeiro serve as a prime example. In a country leading in income inequality, crime, and poor public health services, Brazil spent over $13 billion renovating a historic district and port, building new venues and a subway line, and trying to clean up a bay used for water sports that had dangerously high levels of bacterial contamination and sewage. Years later, most of this investment has gone unused, and the 2016 Olympics is commonly viewed as a “financial disaster” for Brazil.

Yet, despite the rising costs and occasional calls for boycott over political or human rights issues, the Olympics continues. In modern history, there have been only three times that the Olympics were canceled and all of them due to world war in 1916, 1940, and 1944. And so, when the global Covid pandemic took root last year, the International Olympic Committee (IOC) and Tokyo (the 2020 host city) agreed to postpone and not cancel the Summer Games, which are scheduled to commence on July 23.

However, Japan is currently experiencing a high rate of new Covid infections, and Tokyo (the host city) remains in a state of emergency due to the virus. While respected media outlets are reporting that the daily infection rate in Tokyo should be below 100 in order to safely host the Games, at this writing, the rate was almost 700. Many hospitals are said to be overwhelmed and only about 2% of the population are fully vaccinated.

As a consequence, roughly 70% of the Japanese public now oppose the decision to proceed with the Olympics next month. Japan already has banned foreign visitors from entering to observe the Games (impacting not just the spirit but the financial benefits of hosting the Games) and may ban local fans from attending as well.

There is also the issue of the health of the athletes who will converge on Japan in July. The concern now is to ensure that the Olympics do not become a “super spreader” event, and the athletes (many, but not necessarily all, who will arrive vaccinated) adhere to mandatory health precautions. It is worth noting that the Olympic charter compels the IOC to ensure “the health of the athletes.”

As of now, the IOC maintains confidence that the world’s athletes will be able to safely convene in Japan and take part in the Games, and the already delayed 2020 Summer Olympics will proceed as planned. Only the IOC, and not Tokyo, has the contractual right to cancel the 2020 Games. Under the operating agreement, the IOC can choose to cancel the Games if it “has reasonable grounds to believe, in its sole discretion, that the safety of participants in the Games would be seriously threatened or jeopardized for any reason whatsoever.”

So let us all hope that the current restrictive measures in place in Tokyo and elsewhere in Japan improve the public health situation and lead to a justified and permanent lifting of the ongoing state of emergency. Let us hope that, despite the absence of foreign visitors, Japan will be able to replicate the success it had when last hosting the Summer Games in 1964 and be able to broadcast this success to viewers all around the world. And let us hope that the athletes who attend will convene safely and in the spirit of global goodwill and sportsmanship. After the year we have had, a healthy and joyful showing at the Olympics would allow us all to emerge as victors.

Danilo Diazgranados is an investor, collector, and lover of fine wines and a member of the prestigious Confrérie des Chevaliers du Tastevin, a fraternity of Burgundy wine enthusiasts.